Some beaches in the Balearic Islands could lose more than 50% of their surface by 2100

• This study has been supported by PIMA ADAPTA 'Costes pel Canvi' Project led by SOCIB and funded by the GOIB Vice-Presidency and Regional Ministry of Energy Transition, Productive Sectors and Democratic Memory.

Researchers at the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA CSIC-UIB), the University of Balearic Islands (UIB), and the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB) have analysed the effects of sea-level rise and extreme events, in terms of potential coastal flooding and beach erosion along sandy coastlines, in the Balearic Islands during the twenty-first century. Published in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science, the study has found that some beaches (mainly cliff or promenade front beaches) will lose more than 50% of their subaerial surface by the end of the century. These findings can be used to inform the local, regional and national policymakers about the most critical zones in order to prioritize their actuation. This work has been supported by PIMA ADAPTA ‘Costes pel Canvi’ Project led by SOCIB and funded by the GOIB Vice-Presidency and Regional Ministry of Energy Transition, Productive Sectors and Democratic Memory.

According to researchers, sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. Potential coastline retreat combined with waves and storm surges will result in more severe damages for coastal zones, especially over insular systems. Thus, in order to assess those potential hazards along the sandy coasts of the Balearic Islands, the researchers have mapped projected flooded areas under two climate-change-driven mean sea-level rise scenarios, together with the impact of an extreme event defined by the 100-year return level of joint storm surges and waves for 2050 and 2100 reference years. Furthermore, they have also estimated touristic recreational services decrease of sandy beaches caused by the obtained shoreline retreat, in monetary terms.

The results of the study have shown that permanent flooding by 2100 will cover 7.8–27.7 km2 under a scenario of mean sea-level rise between 32 and 80 cm, and up to 10.9–36.5 km2 under a scenario of mean sea-level rise between 46 and 103 cm. Some beaches will lose more than 50% of their surface by 2100: 20–50% of them under the former scenario and 25–60% under the latter. The approach has also identified the potentially most affected areas in the region: the wetlands of Alcúdia, Pollença and Es Trenc in Mallorca, and the saltworks of Eivissa.

In addition, researchers have found that loss of beach touristic recreational services could represent a gross domestic product (GDP) equivalent loss up to 7.2% with respect to the 2019 GDP, under the worst-case scenario. Thus, the study has translated into monetary terms the effects of climate change over those beaches, which may lead to future exploration on how the Balearic Islands economy and society will be affected by climate change.

Reference article

Luque, P., Gómez-Pujol, L., Marcos, M., & Orfila, A. (2021). Coastal Flooding in the Balearic Islands During the Twenty-First Century Caused by Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Events. Frontiers in Marine Science.